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Vol. 52, n.1, March 2011
pp. 39-57

Tests of two time-dependent seismicity models based on interevent times of mainshocks and on seismic triggering in the Aegean area

B.C. PAPAZACHOS, G.F. KARAKAISIS, C.B. PAPAZACHOS and E.M. SCORDILIS

Received: June 8, 2010; accepted: November 27, 2010

Abstract

In the present work, the basic principles and recent developments of two intermediateterm prediction models are described. The first one is the Time and Magnitude Predictable regional model which is based on interevent times of strong (M>6.0) mainshocks while the second one is the Decelerating-Accelerating Strain model which is based on the triggering of a mainshock by its preshocks. A combined forward test of both these models is performed by attempting estimation (prediction) of probably ensuing strong mainshocks in the broader Aegean area (Aegean Sea and surrounding lands). The results led to the identification of six regions that are candidates for the generation of strong (M>6.0) mainshocks during the next eight years (2010-2017). The uncertainties in the estimation of the parameters of these six probably ensuing mainshocks are: 2.5 years in the origin time, ≤120 km in the epicenter, h≤100 km in the focal depth and 0.3 in the magnitude, with an about 80% probability.



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